Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420fc3cb0f3ce4da740389c6dbb0fa3145a78b7abee114d981a4b956bede96cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1e8…d8dfbacked No | 1c | 2,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 12c | 1,353$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 846.18$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 794.26$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 17c | 780.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 716.3$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 478.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 465.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 450.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 18c | 421.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.37 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 421.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.47 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 272.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 264.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.13 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 262.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked No | 5c | 235$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 215$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 210.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 205$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 191.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 56c | 167.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 125.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 123.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 27c | 121.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 61c | 112.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 68c | 109.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 109.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 107.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 57c | 107.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 106.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 102.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 101.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 99.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 96.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 33c | 92.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 15c | 90.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 88.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 78.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 78.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 28c | 70.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 70.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 69.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 64.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 61.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 31c | 58.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 57.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 27c | 51.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 51.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 77c | 45.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 45.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 67c | 41.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 27c | 40.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…ce1cbacked Yes | 30c | 38.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 35.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 29c | 34.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 66c | 32.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 31.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 56c | 31.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 70c | 31.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 28.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 27.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 26.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…9081backed No | 73c | 22.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 20.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 60c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 74c | 17.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 14.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 108-109°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 110-111°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 112-113°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 114-115°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.