Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e54098e1eb1ca6cd1083294b7a8df6b211f52c91c752c9cd437ecac1945424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 13c | 2,539$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.44 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 1,857$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 7c | 797.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 719.62$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 537.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 470.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 7c | 372.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 342.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 8c | 235.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 217.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 172.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 17c | 159.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 123.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 27c | 99.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…63bcbacked Yes | 13c | 95.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 25c | 86.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 63.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 27c | 58.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 75c | 55.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 73c | 54.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 54.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 50.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 48.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 25c | 46.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 28.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 79c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 108-109°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 110-111°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 112-113°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 114-115°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.