Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd46dfb9d8284cfa06f7f0532e2ee2c2985127f7e298dd46c699a7c9d424ec9f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 35c | 1,256$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.74 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 63c | 1,148$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.74 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 791.96$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 590.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 53c | 544.44$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 455.3$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 441.93$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 56c | 440.94$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 440.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 413$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 41c | 397.49$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 372.09$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 29c | 343.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 42c | 320.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 295.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 267.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 258.55$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 239.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 234.02$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 39c | 231.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 225$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 37c | 222.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 50c | 202.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 168.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 167.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 166.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 38c | 164.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 146.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 54c | 136.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 38c | 133.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 129.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 35c | 124.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 122.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 38c | 116.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 105.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 65c | 103.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 50c | 102.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 62c | 100.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 67c | 98.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 89.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 87.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 29c | 87.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 61c | 84.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 56c | 82.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 61c | 82.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 81.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 80.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 78.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 50c | 71.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 68.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 73c | 67.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 63.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed Yes | 37c | 62.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 59.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 38c | 59.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 43c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 56.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 56.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 55.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 38c | 55.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 55.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 49.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 41c | 49.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 41c | 49.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 38c | 47.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 47.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 47.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…8caabacked No | 64c | 44.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 62c | 42.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 62c | 41.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 41c | 40.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…21f6backed No | 64c | 40.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 40.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 37c | 37.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 64c | 36.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 35.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 108-109°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 110-111°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 112-113°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 114-115°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.