Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0e9176c461cc3174204a51f131e99bb2617c918249255673a1b453d2f3c01a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 2,736$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 22c | 1,642$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.3 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 1,522$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,208$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 948.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 21c | 820.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 668.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 578.2$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 20c | 565.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 554.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 529.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 461.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 455.3$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 18c | 443$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 409.88$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 27c | 378.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 295.62$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked Yes | 17c | 293.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 28c | 288$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 14c | 257.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 247.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 225$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 213.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 78c | 186.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 176.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 164.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 158.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 157.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 156.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 150.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 28c | 144.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 143.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 23c | 142.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 120.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 113.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 105.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 104.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…63bcbacked Yes | 17c | 98.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 97.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 73c | 96.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 87.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 86.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 20c | 80.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 78.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 24c | 71.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 24c | 68.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 67.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 80c | 67.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 63.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 63.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 62.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 61.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 61.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 23c | 57.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 23c | 57.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 30c | 53.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked No | 79c | 50.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 50.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 50.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…5025backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 80c | 48.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 48.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 47.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…bc8ebacked No | 69c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 37.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 36.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 35.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…72e3backed Yes | 33c | 31.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 27.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 79c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 69c | 20.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 20.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 108-109°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 110-111°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 112-113°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 114-115°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.