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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,429 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3773…f0ddbacked No65c900$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.573756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes50c748.32$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.3165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes60c572.07$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.941,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No7c462.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1292028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c448.47$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.174,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes49c409.11$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c252.28$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.849,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c250.65$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.765,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c250$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.815,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…a43cbacked No8c207.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c205.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c203.67$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No11c180.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No16c160.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No58c157.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.861,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c143.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591c…619fbacked Yes42c109.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes37c100.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6313160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c97.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No53c94.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.371,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c94.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.614,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No57c89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0152155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes57c81.29$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1410642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes35c74.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7513423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes32c73.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1885…521bbacked Yes26c72.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf430…f3c2backed Yes65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.281952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes22c65.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.912829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes44c60.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.834047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes41c59.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes39c57.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1868521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes57c54.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2125344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No42c53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3712762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes44c52.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3717553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes27c52.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes45c51.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9735742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No28c51.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No60c50.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d2…262cbacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.173345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes25c49.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7543430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes48c46.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2414638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes32c46.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8816627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No62c45.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.48257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.455024%12 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No70c43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.127669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes36c41.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.662,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes34c39.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bab…d3bebacked Yes54c37.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes39c36.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4420230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No68c36.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No42c35.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6239157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No36c35.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4944659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c32.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8386173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes51c32.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8451553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes32c32.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f1…c062backed No65c30.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0112057.5%69 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes44c30.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2610834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.493,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes42c29.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2152533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf908…6718backed Yes70c28.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.654148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x652d…6063backed No59c28.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.859322.6%21 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No51c28.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.574,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec87…43f9backed No71c28.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No45c27.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes39c25.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.732352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78fb…256cbacked No63c25.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No44c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No69c21.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes51c21.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.180050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.734,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fc…2041backed Yes66c16.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.621770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde1…914bbacked No74c14.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.