Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff4d37cb305116f679422153557620d1467c07061ca5edae77db435ac270298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 65c | 900$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.57 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 748.32$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 60c | 572.07$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 7c | 462.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 448.47$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 409.11$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 252.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 250.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 250$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 8c | 207.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 205.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 203.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 180.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 160.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 157.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 143.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 42c | 109.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 37c | 100.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 97.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 94.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 94.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 81.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 35c | 74.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 32c | 73.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 26c | 72.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 22c | 65.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 44c | 60.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes | 41c | 59.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 39c | 57.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 57c | 54.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 44c | 52.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 52.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 45c | 51.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 28c | 51.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 60c | 50.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 25c | 49.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 48c | 46.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 45.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 39.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…d3bebacked Yes | 54c | 37.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 39c | 36.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 68c | 36.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 42c | 35.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 36c | 35.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 51c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 32.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 44c | 30.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 42c | 29.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 59c | 28.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 28.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 45c | 27.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 39c | 25.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 51c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked No | 74c | 14.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.