Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238183d80d6d84e44bd50185210594d81d34f759ffaf46fdfa165f8736e60d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,937$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,281$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 1,125$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 17c | 844.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 54c | 598.76$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 15c | 582.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 558.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 58c | 444.01$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 3c | 428.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 12c | 393.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 6c | 376.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 353.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 49c | 311.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 305.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 274.73$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 270.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 27c | 264.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 247$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 241.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 218.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 33c | 203.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 45c | 199.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 198$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 26c | 182.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 175.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 31c | 174.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 166$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 12c | 138.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 121.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 119.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 22c | 112.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 23c | 105.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 49c | 102.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 102.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 102.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 10c | 102.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 101.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 12c | 98.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 49c | 90.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 46c | 84.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…11e1backed Yes | 59c | 74.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 61c | 66.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 54c | 62.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 70c | 60.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 42.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 42.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 37.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 67c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd4…83fbbacked Yes | 46c | 28.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 39c | 28.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 74c | 27.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 65c | 27.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 60c | 25.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 64c | 24.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 69c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 63c | 16.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 70c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.