TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes8c1,937$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.319,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes39c1,281$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.984,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No62c1,125$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes17c844.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7074023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes54c598.76$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.13727%10 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-48.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed Yes15c582.95$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.238123.5%19 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c558.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes58c444.01$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.154247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes3c428.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed Yes12c393.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.576636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes6c376.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8643430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes28c353.04$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1165625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No49c311.69$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8827841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes41c305.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes48c274.73$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8865749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes27c270.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.121,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes27c264.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4216532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c247$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c241.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.245,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c218.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.723,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes33c203.68$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5313160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No45c199.95$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.971,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c198$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.533,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes26c182.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c175.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.412,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes31c174.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3814638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No50c166$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.671,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes13c153.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2913423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes12c138.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No67c130$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.92,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c121.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.384,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8720230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c119.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.911,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed Yes22c112.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.558512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes23c105.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.764729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes49c102.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.711,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No76c102.44$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.626253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No59c102.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.811,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes10c102.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0112829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No75c101.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.051,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes12c98.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9615454.5%84 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No49c90.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9752155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes46c84.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8235742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb910…11e1backed Yes59c74.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.871136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.593,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Yes61c66.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.492646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No54c62.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No70c60.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3130168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No67c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3412762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f2e…e75ebacked No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.994271.4%30 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…c1e1backed No50c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d2…262cbacked Yes23c49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes27c42.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c42.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.922,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No64c42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1451553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No71c37.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…4e79backed Yes55c36.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No67c35.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7913765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No68c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No79c31.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.582,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.174,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No69c29.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1916968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd4…83fbbacked Yes46c28.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No49c28.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.582,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes39c28.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.942352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c27.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No74c27.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…daebbacked No65c27.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.722528%7 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-46.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No69c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed No75c26.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.535756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed No60c25.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3918931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes64c24.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5115152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No78c23.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.011,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes70c22.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No71c21.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.212,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf430…f3c2backed Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.981952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No75c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0224951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87de…c545backed No69c17.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88fc…2041backed Yes63c16.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.721770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016d…e9b4backed No70c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.432528%7 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0d6…aa50backed No69c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick67cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.