Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce11c497ee640af75f3ff1b11b222bca26e184293c49fa2cab388dcd3340a0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 14c | 792.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 2c | 610.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 525.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 327.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 5c | 249.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 229.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 214.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 210.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 38c | 200.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…df91backed Yes | 26c | 192.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Yes | 10c | 157.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 147$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 9c | 136.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 28c | 134.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…897bbacked Yes | 19c | 91.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 80.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…9fccbacked Yes | 19c | 79.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 16c | 77.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 77c | 70.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 63c | 53.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 51.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 55c | 50.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 68c | 34.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 30.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed Yes | 42c | 25.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 22.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 22.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.