TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdf35…71e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT2630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+114.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.16
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.8
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.46
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.22
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.28
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.84
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.87
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.09
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.29
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$13.13
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.98
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$48.88
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+4,340.9%+$572.05
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$11.1
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$3.47
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$3.8
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$4.85
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)backed Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$10.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Red Wingsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$3.5
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+78.2%+$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.