Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe30c5238ceac9e50bda2785c0f07f26e646d4852f1f4d96a2ad7051ee1d99094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 57c | 341.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…bc27backed No | 64c | 313.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 52c | 305.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 30c | 255.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed No | 47c | 209.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 50c | 207.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 197.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 48c | 185.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 178.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 119.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 10c | 117.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…c221backed No | 40c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 55c | 103.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 70c | 102.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 97.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 54c | 93.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 80.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 43c | 69.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 54c | 64.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 64.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 62.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 47c | 58.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 52c | 57.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 67c | 56.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…3b66backed No | 61c | 51.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 54c | 51.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 38c | 49.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 44.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 46c | 44.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 56c | 42.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 48c | 41.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c55dbacked No | 46c | 40.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff57…56d1backed No | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 70c | 39.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 39.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed Yes | 56c | 35.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 78c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 60c | 34.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 67c | 33.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked Yes | 55c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…8504backed No | 49c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 38c | 28.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…5516backed No | 47c | 26.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…a419backed Yes | 62c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 66c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 49c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 50c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 56c | 20.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.