TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f20…12c3backed No22c964.2$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.724,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c773.82$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes55c759.18$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.5521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No19c755.2$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.922,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes53c707.05$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.133,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes78c493.87$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.816335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No47c468.4$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3531262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes55c465.13$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.61,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No23c413.46$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c377.12$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes22c330.97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes35c317.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.741,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes32c310.39$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes49c278$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.784,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes32c275$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.84070%28 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7f…411bbacked No69c270.04$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No4c266.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes29c249.63$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.287524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c244.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes64c235.67$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1329520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c223.12$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0048…3d5cbacked No62c221.5$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes46c218.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1711737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No41c209.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.023,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No45c201.66$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.812,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No53c201.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.963961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No60c199.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9916045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No72c199.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c198.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes38c181$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4371…0511backed Yes63c166.55$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.561947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes23c164.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1115923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes31c158.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.966439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No63c152.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.045756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5992…63d0backed No78c135.42$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fc2…0018backed Yes47c129.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.791631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked No65c128.18$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.292821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes35c127.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6558732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed Yes29c125.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3119648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No39c122.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8139157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.924539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes34c118.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.675135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c113.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes36c103.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.825343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.022846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c99.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes32c99.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No55c98.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.992965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes55c97.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8818038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e43…259cbacked Yes26c94.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+277.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No51c92.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2918052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes63c85.03$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5114659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f4…63a4backed Yes14c80$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No28c78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.071,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No65c76.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No73c74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0217861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No42c74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5e…932fbacked Yes26c73.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No33c70.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596f…248abacked Yes22c69.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes79c69.73$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c68.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No31c68.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6428441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes35c65.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5416530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No20c64.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6626958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c61.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a8c…1ddcbacked Yes47c60.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+82.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc45c…d162backed No56c59.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.38366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b18…bd24backed No67c59.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.86564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No76c58.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.095981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c57.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.452,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c56.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.175,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c55.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes37c54.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.192934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c52.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.382,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bda…218fbacked Yes26c52.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+291.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes33c52.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.343935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd651…bff1backed Yes44c52.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes69c51.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.829953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd8…2b6cbacked No77c50.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.71770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd108…5bc2backed No57c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.371250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.534457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked No67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes48c49.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.867659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No75c47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2743859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.335,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No73c46.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.58955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes45c45.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3416030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c45.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.489,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No65c45.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.322138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No55c44.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.754254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No67c44.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6734250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes46c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6416968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes62c43.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.663658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba0…d76abacked Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes30c43.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9542049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.