Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x678c06976c2fb13c27261fc350180cc98cb7c511ddf822c42ef35228fc0b7754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 964.2$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 773.82$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 55c | 759.18$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.55 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 19c | 755.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 707.05$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 78c | 493.87$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 47c | 468.4$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.35 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 55c | 465.13$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 23c | 413.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 377.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes | 22c | 330.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 35c | 317.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 32c | 310.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 278$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 32c | 275$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.8 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…411bbacked No | 69c | 270.04$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 4c | 266.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 29c | 249.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.28 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 64c | 235.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 223.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…3d5cbacked No | 62c | 221.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 46c | 218.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 209.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 201.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 53c | 201.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 60c | 199.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 199.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 198.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 38c | 181$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 63c | 166.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 23c | 164.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 31c | 158.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 63c | 152.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…63d0backed No | 78c | 135.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed Yes | 47c | 129.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 65c | 128.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 35c | 127.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 29c | 125.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 39c | 122.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 34c | 118.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 113.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 36c | 103.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 32c | 99.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 55c | 98.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 55c | 97.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e43…259cbacked Yes | 26c | 94.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 51c | 92.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 63c | 85.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63a4backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 76.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 73c | 74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…932fbacked Yes | 26c | 73.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 33c | 70.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…248abacked Yes | 22c | 69.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 79c | 69.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 68.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 31c | 68.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 35c | 65.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 20c | 64.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 61.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…1ddcbacked Yes | 47c | 60.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…d162backed No | 56c | 59.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 67c | 59.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 76c | 58.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 57.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 56.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 55.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…218fbacked Yes | 26c | 52.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +291.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 33c | 52.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bff1backed Yes | 44c | 52.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 69c | 51.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…2b6cbacked No | 77c | 50.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 48c | 49.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 73c | 46.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 45c | 45.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 45.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 65c | 45.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 44.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 62c | 43.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba0…d76abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 30c | 43.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.