TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x108a…8159backed Yes2c1,049$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3458732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4de1…f822backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019430.4%59 W · 135 L+0.6wins0.00per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes16c403.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.352,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes36c339.97$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes13c332.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0634624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes33c303.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes36c301$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.423920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes33c275$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c250.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes12c213.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.564,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No70c211.27$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3363143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes21c205.89$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.952533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c205.39$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.482,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No62c194.29$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0923743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes34c192.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c191$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes44c182.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No69c179.15$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No63c178.77$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c174.81$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.573,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ac…0d2cbacked Yes36c174.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-68.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes23c166.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.391145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes39c158.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.263324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes38c155.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4119022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes13c146.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.611,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes34c141.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c141$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No63c138.73$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.681,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfba1…e5b5backed Yes42c130.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.91020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes22c121.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2229520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes26c116.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c112.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c106.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.437,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No59c105.76$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9921268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes40c105$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes38c102.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.915343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes38c101.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.655633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes42c99.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8812735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c91.45$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c91.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes36c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes40c88.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes15c85.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.549439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No62c80.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8654857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c79.64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No68c79.4$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.412965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c16…04bfbacked Yes36c77.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.561241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596f…248abacked Yes37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c68.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes38c65.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.882,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.320546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes40c57.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.848947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes31c57.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0362137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes39c57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2324770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes38c54.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.662934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20c7…bc23backed No63c54.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes37c53.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c53.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes35c52.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.153935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c50.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c50.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No72c49.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9244659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8853437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No55c46.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.888955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No60c44.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.843961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes40c42.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1724238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No63c42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No62c41.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.741,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No64c38.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8538758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c36.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes38c36.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d22…245cbacked Yes40c35.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.196026.7%16 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No63c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No61c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0927669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No61c30.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.042,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f83…9847backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e1…7858backed Yes39c29.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.69837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No61c29.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No65c29.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.297659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No61c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1712758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No59c25.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No69c25.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.944553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed No58c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No58c18.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe045…d304backed No64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.