Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3603201813facf63fa8c36cd8b50be499c537137737e739b22ea33d15ae72682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 2c | 4,140$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 422.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 6c | 307.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 283.49$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 241.9$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 9c | 237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 234.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 10c | 229.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed No | 79c | 194.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 12c | 176.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 40c | 175.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 12c | 156.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 148.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 14c | 141.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 139.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 131.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 27c | 128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…fc1dbacked Yes | 25c | 125.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 25c | 120.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 109.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 35c | 101.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 79.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 77c | 76.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…248abacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 57.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 56.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes | 28c | 55.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 30c | 52.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 20c | 52.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 49.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 79c | 46.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 41.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 78c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…c723backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.