Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb8cb58f4eb8eb62d40302d09a729247af2c891a663d48d6c890092ed393529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 67c | 694.48$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.86 | 408 | 66.4%271 W · 137 L | +35.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 75c | 572.32$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 432.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 19c | 426.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 356.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 13c | 341.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 20c | 301.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 557 | 26%145 W · 412 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 47c | 204$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 1,111 | 23.7%263 W · 848 L | +72.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 252 | 75.8%191 W · 61 L | +25.0wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…e5b5backed No | 19c | 161.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 15c | 159.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 150.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 142.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 46c | 141.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 109.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…212fbacked No | 14c | 108.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 105.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 54c | 100.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 72c | 97.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…7422backed Yes | 75c | 85.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 84.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 21c | 79.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 57c | 71.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 76c | 64.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 38c | 62.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 79c | 56.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 79c | 55.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 68c | 44.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 69c | 43.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 71c | 40.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 215 | 33%71 W · 144 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 72c | 38.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 37.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 52c | 37.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 68c | 36.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 48c | 30.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 39c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 47c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 27.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 75c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 61c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 75c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.