TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf35…71e3backed Yes0c26,057$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.82630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+114.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes1c2,220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x390f…1184backed Yes1c1,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes1c1,555$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes4c1,507$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.253951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked Yes3c1,361$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.19742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes13c1,043$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3936648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes13c1,025$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.922,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes6c999.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed Yes6c809.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.544161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes6c741.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2361365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c611.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.573,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c591.03$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.095,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes8c510.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c499.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes20c496.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23b9…cd97backed Yes26c461.86$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+116.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11cb…4f5ebacked Yes5c454.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No27c439.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.819634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c429.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes11c427.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No65c415.97$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0726265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes14c401$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1416116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes14c379.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.361040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c341.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.881,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes11c340.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9274926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes33c337.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2710617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No76c333$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.811,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes12c332.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8231219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes4c319.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.061,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No74c313.6$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes36c280.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c271.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…cce9backed Yes19c261.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…4459backed Yes5c259.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.02450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+117%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c244.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.281,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c238.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes12c235.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2532…3b1dbacked Yes5c231.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes13c219.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.981,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c213.83$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.974,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No47c203.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3538758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…c2d1backed No75c201.76$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.361376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b6…0d2bbacked Yes62c200.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6814372%103 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes13c194.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4130813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf0…a575backed Yes21c192.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes24c182.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14f…0014backed Yes9c181.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc9…f0d4backed No79c179.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9933…db7dbacked Yes25c179.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes11c159.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No70c157.09$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0925362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes7c152.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed Yes13c151.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes11c146.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.665633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes20c137.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9733232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c134.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes20c132.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes10c131.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes11c128.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.733,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d4f…f3fdbacked Yes10c123$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No19c120.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes15c119.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9734633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3970…f56bbacked No77c119.05$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.971070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c118$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.533,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes18c116.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick56cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked Yes10c116.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9724736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes38c114.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5625946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c111.6$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.752,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c111.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes16c107.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1717831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed Yes60c105.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes13c104.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0517237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c4…e168backed No76c103.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.882864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes23c102.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3124238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe309…a71abacked Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eed…c2a5backed No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes14c98.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.611122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No69c97.82$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.323441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3fb…cbc4backed Yes16c95.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No49c92.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No36c91.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.142,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes38c91.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9542754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes53c90.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0135742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6918…7816backed Yes55c89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.951392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick68cpaid+35.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes17c88.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.381,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c0…67e5backed Yes29c87.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7948…a8a2backed Yes59c85.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes36c82.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes14c82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccc6…6da5backed Yes25c79.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes15c78.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4613134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes15c78.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes23c78.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7137835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No39c77.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1638961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c75.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.332,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.