Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x589f7c77cc81bb661edf7c410e97be9c7a8f9fde13fa4e8351df4d6904c2f32f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 0c | 26,057$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390f…1184backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,555$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,507$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,361$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 13c | 1,043$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,025$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed Yes | 6c | 809.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 6c | 741.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 611.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 591.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 8c | 510.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 499.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 20c | 496.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…cd97backed Yes | 26c | 461.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…4f5ebacked Yes | 5c | 454.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 27c | 439.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 429.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 11c | 427.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 65c | 415.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.07 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 14c | 401$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 14c | 379.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 341.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 340.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 33c | 337.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 333$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 332.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 4c | 319.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 74c | 313.6$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 36c | 280.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 271.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 19c | 261.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…4459backed Yes | 5c | 259.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +117%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 244.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 10c | 238.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 235.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…3b1dbacked Yes | 5c | 231.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 219.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 213.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 47c | 203.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…c2d1backed No | 75c | 201.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked Yes | 62c | 200.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 194.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…a575backed Yes | 21c | 192.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 24c | 182.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…0014backed Yes | 9c | 181.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc9…f0d4backed No | 79c | 179.98$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 25c | 179.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 11c | 159.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 70c | 157.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 7c | 152.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 13c | 151.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 11c | 146.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 137.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 134.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 20c | 132.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 10c | 131.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 128.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4f…f3fdbacked Yes | 10c | 123$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 19c | 120.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 15c | 119.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked No | 77c | 119.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 118$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 18c | 116.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 10c | 116.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 38c | 114.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 111.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 111.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 16c | 107.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed Yes | 60c | 105.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 13c | 104.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed No | 76c | 103.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 23c | 102.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…a71abacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…c2a5backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 14c | 98.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…cbc4backed Yes | 16c | 95.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 92.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 91.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 38c | 91.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 53c | 90.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed Yes | 55c | 89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…67e5backed Yes | 29c | 87.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 59c | 85.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 82.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…6da5backed Yes | 25c | 79.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 15c | 78.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 15c | 78.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 23c | 78.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 39c | 77.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 75.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.