TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes44c393.19$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2724466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes14c352.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes23c306.09$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.033,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes56c274.63$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes57c267.14$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes52c251.79$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.183956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes42c213.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No58c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c185.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.374,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes47c174.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9933…db7dbacked Yes26c173.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c172.55$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.13,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No70c168.74$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9939951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes47c163.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.422733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes30c160.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9419022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c153.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.715,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c151.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.422,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes8c149.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes37c136.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c134$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.634,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes32c116.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.836439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes30c116.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c114.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes32c113.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.27237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes30c104$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No68c103.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6212329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes35c101.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.611540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No66c101$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7642160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes30c99.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.235,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c97.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.392,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes52c96.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c94.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.649,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c93.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.384,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes29c93.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.425959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a6…5aaabacked Yes21c90.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5753…fa31backed Yes30c87.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No43c86.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.279634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes35c86.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes35c85.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3661629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes23c79.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5133232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c77.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c76.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.981,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes32c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes21c75.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes33c73.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes41c72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.182934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c71.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes31c69.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6637835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes44c69.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.641,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c68.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No74c67.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.725068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c67.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.412,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eed…c2a5backed Yes25c67.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c66.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes31c61.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes33c60.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No72c55.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.781,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked Yes28c55.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No49c55.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.031,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes32c54.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes58c53.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3113959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed Yes30c52.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.514645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.734457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…c680backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes41c48.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes37c48.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f0…8943backed Yes24c48.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No53c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c44.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.983,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc031…0379backed No64c42.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes32c40.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0834846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4281…634dbacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa494…5904backed No66c39.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes26c39.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes33c38.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8618837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a4…2895backed No54c38.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.833250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No78c38.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6611459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No75c38.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.558257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes58c37.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.663759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes29c36.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes29c36.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.534633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9689…cbddbacked No67c33.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No60c33.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.212955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc59…f336backed No68c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes40c32.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes31c31.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes32c31.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No69c31.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.