TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72ed…13bcbacked No1c2,348$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No1c2,193$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No13c1,879$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes67c1,594$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.54047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd40f…8244backed No17c1,487$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No2c1,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.032,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes34c705.5$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.069634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes40c698.21$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.8436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes67c590.71$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eba…6c18backed No37c487.43$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No32c400$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.211,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes49c361.36$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes10c356.4$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.046943.5%30 W · 39 L+12.2wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+201.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.762,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No12c327.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.232,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c289.78$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No21c288.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.583,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No30c275.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.813,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b1a…af71backed No22c271.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed No5c267.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes33c265.28$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No69c263.7$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c237.03$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.521,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No35c235.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2641258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd5…33cfbacked No8c224.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.891040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No70c210.34$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3412329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes44c208.06$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c208$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No44c201.31$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c200$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c195$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.383,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes45c191.32$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fb6…85afbacked No70c189.78$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.031770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed No60c182.09$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No35c177.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.24,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No19c176.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes20c167.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf78…c915backed No17c165.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.572218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c160.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2a0d…1d0cbacked Yes28c153.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.84837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No58c153.18$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8912547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9933…db7dbacked Yes31c147.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.522317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c144.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No74c142.97$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6952155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes43c138.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3520230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes73c135.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1625946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes37c133.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.485841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes31c131$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.861,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c116.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes35c115.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.456431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No31c111.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No11c107.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.029058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes29c106.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.656439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes32c104$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.726227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6016552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes27c99.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes29c96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No61c89.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.542,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes35c85.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.111546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes67c83.29$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No50c82.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.135854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes38c78.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.762733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No28c78.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No17c77.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5743859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7948…a8a2backed No26c76.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+59.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes32c76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.642934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50be…6b67backed No45c74.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes27c74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48a0…f156backed No55c71.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.569762.9%61 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes30c70.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4134633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No28c69.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7724262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes64c69.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9861365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes26c68.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9237835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee01…b01fbacked No68c64.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.193961.5%24 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No19c63.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2539157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes42c62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No22c61.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7438758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52d…a95abacked No44c61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.584951%25 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed Yes80c60.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0711748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes74c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes24c59.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes33c59.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes35c56.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.152533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes52c55.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c55.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.712,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes66c55.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.735742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes33c55.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3211438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes35c54.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc484…c9d1backed Yes27c54.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes30c54.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.275959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No27c54.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.846643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c54.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.683,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No65c52.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No71c52.16$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed Yes58c51.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No43c51.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.239158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.