Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffef06ccd2226fc07d4201faa6908a4aa85f16c1c8d6fc6132c2fb6f30c3891a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 77c | 311.49$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 250.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 234$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 200.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Yes | 46c | 193$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 49c | 164.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 24c | 157.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 48c | 148.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 33c | 141.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 44c | 131.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 119.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 116.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 104.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 48c | 92.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 41c | 88.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 45c | 88.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 51c | 75.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 71.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 69.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 49c | 62.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…8d5dbacked No | 56c | 58.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 52.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 67c | 48.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 41.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 56c | 39.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 51c | 35.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 52c | 33.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 45c | 29.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 49c | 29.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 29.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…212fbacked No | 54c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 59c | 23.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 54c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 48c | 21.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…a898backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 59c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.