Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9928bc83d12809e922b6c9ae19380575fe82bdf09be81e1bcbae0df89e9939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 23c | 1,485$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 835.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 16c | 548.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 390.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 388.2$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 331.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed Yes | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…eed1backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 30c | 196.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 37c | 188.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 74c | 185.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…0c60backed Yes | 8c | 185.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 23c | 149.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 30c | 135.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 110.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 79.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 76.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 22c | 72.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…6444backed Yes | 28c | 71.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 66.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 79c | 59.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 74c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked No | 64c | 58.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 77c | 56.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Yes | 27c | 54.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 65c | 52.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…f879backed Yes | 28c | 40.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 34c | 34.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 74c | 30.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 77c | 30.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 72c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 54c | 25.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 25.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 22.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…83a8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 14.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.