Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf88e741c29affd96b9beec98075ad27e33cf069467f7547088e213c38ad501c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 70c | 724.46$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.47 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 665.3$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 651.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 2c | 585.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.05 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 4c | 579.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.29 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 4c | 413.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.59 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 14c | 404.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.81 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 7c | 390.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.45 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 318.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.74 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 224.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed Yes | 36c | 192.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 17c | 181.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.82 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 24c | 175.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 21c | 168.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 161.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 25c | 155.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 22c | 147.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 147.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 72c | 92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 41c | 76.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 59.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 34c | 42.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 34.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 41c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 80c | 20.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.