Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd801d28dccee3bf5b116c067cecbaf8070d8957ecc443de24b570e93884c8d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,992$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,662$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 36c | 1,151$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.33 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 43c | 386.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.19 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 321.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 259.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 63c | 243.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 233$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 193.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 53c | 168.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 156.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 147.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 144.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 132.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 131.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 115.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 114.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 108.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 106.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 39c | 106$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 67c | 98.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 96.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 95.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 94.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 35c | 85.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 82.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 21c | 75.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 71.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 69.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 30c | 68.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 66.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 64.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 60.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 54c | 57.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 57c | 57.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 53.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 51.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 49.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 28c | 48.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xef9e…6d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 46.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 24c | 43.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 37c | 41.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 38.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 63c | 36.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 38c | 36.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 35.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 35c | 34.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 63c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 33.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 32.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 31.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 40c | 30.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 46c | 30.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed No | 69c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 66c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f94…edacbacked Yes | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 66c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 23.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…36f4backed Yes | 79c | 21.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.