Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10138642771b9efe434f25c4fb64bcd29e42a45123dc3c7bcb5abf710d289f77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,268$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 39c | 840.46$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked No | 50c | 301.15$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 201.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 199.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 58c | 155.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 124.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 123.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 113.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 84.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 55c | 80.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 78.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 77.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 29c | 75.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 72.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 70.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 54c | 69.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 69.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 34c | 64.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 63.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 58.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 54c | 55.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 51.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 51.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 58c | 49.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 44.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 51c | 41.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 66c | 41.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 55c | 40.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 37c | 40.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 38.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 37.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 34.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 53c | 34.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 38c | 33.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 31.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 38c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 43c | 28.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 54c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 58c | 25.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 59c | 25.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 23.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f5…7f85backed Yes | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 60c | 16.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.