Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5331833f0274e9b02788fd0bf3b47330ab9f5b6fff11e6f52a1dca3ea44d0136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 19c | 705.16$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked Yes | 31c | 324.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 7c | 299.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 26c | 299.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 273.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 234.53$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 192.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 190.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 185.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 168.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 162.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 151.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…3165backed Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…6425backed Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 37c | 135.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e3…8ceabacked Yes | 32c | 135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 21c | 129.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 28c | 129.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 127.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…eee9backed Yes | 29c | 123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe469…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…2a39backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 119.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 118.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…237abacked Yes | 30c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 116.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 105.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 100.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70c…c9bfbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 98.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd808…b3acbacked Yes | 32c | 94.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 93.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 89.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 89.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 89.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed Yes | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 79.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 76c | 74.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 15c | 72.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 26c | 68.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…d8e7backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 65.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes | 30c | 63.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 62.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 25c | 60.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 33c | 60.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…4171backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 58.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…49c3backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 36c | 57.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…6d66backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 27c | 55.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 55.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8e…0116backed Yes | 30c | 55.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eff…d6b6backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 52.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9903…046fbacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 50.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 26c | 49.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c68…e1eebacked No | 66c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 48.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…9db5backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 47.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…aa1ebacked Yes | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…aab6backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c5…408bbacked No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…5bfcbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4587backed No | 75c | 42.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edf…8441backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…9d2cbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 36.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…364fbacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 74c | 35.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…fafabacked No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 35c | 32.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b00…c3bdbacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.