TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc4b…db02backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes19c705.16$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1630046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdd…ea7fbacked Yes31c324.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes7c299.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2217633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes26c299.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9617338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c273.48$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.081,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes9c260$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.66744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No73c234.53$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes15c192.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0960121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes9c190.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.531,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c185.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes16c168.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.131,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes14c162.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3634319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes25c151.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.21,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36f…3165backed Yes34c148$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafdb…6425backed Yes35c144$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…9575backed Yes37c135.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e3…8ceabacked Yes32c135$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes21c129.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.013026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed Yes28c129.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3230859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes18c127.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.861,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cad…eee9backed Yes29c123$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe469…37a2backed Yes31c121$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b4…2a39backed Yes31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c119.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c118.39$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.494,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa919…237abacked Yes30c118$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c116.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.91,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes18c109.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.210426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No69c105.52$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes28c100.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa70c…c9bfbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes23c99.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c99.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.723,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c98.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.747,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd808…b3acbacked Yes32c94.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c93.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes22c89.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5465627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes29c89.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c89.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f00…8169backed Yes23c85.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No80c79.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.418550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95fe…8c71backed No76c74.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.753773%27 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb244…7ed9backed Yes15c72.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes28c71.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes26c68.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…d8e7backed No68c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes30c65.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes30c63.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c62.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.893,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes25c60.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes33c60.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e87…4171backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes36c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.68124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c58.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07aa…49c3backed No69c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes36c57.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.919531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes21c56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7612223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9917…6d66backed No68c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed Yes27c55.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c55.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.677,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8e…0116backed Yes30c55.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes22c54.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126445.3%29 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eff…d6b6backed No71c54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No73c52.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9903…046fbacked No69c51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes26c50.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.175135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf40…9e76backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91650%8 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…fe58backed Yes26c49.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c68…e1eebacked No66c49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes30c48.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8629459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x512e…9db5backed No70c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No72c47.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa70d…aa1ebacked Yes30c45.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes35c45.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0327756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723d…aab6backed No70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c5…408bbacked No71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…5bfcbacked No70c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b6…4587backed No75c42.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4edf…8441backed No66c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9810154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.233243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.247442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes34c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.637546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes29c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f3…9d2cbacked No69c39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+157.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No69c36.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.091,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb74c…364fbacked Yes34c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No74c35.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.272669.2%18 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b7…fafabacked No70c34.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5322…fa84backed Yes35c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.923831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No76c32.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes35c32.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312611.5%3 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-71%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed Yes34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.885145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b00…c3bdbacked No69c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.