Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e9f8686e4fe18cfd89dc1fa99003d1bf78c77cab6d3b707bee0f80b5a6e36f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 451.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 443.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 272.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 19c | 259.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 257.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 252.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 238.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 17c | 228.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 188.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 179.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 17c | 177.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 164.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 159.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 151.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 27c | 136.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 25c | 133.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 21c | 133.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 21c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 21c | 125.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 32c | 118.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 69c | 117.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 115.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 108.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 16c | 104.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 101.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 30c | 98.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…6340backed Yes | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 17c | 85.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…3d54backed Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 80c | 80.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 16c | 76.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 24c | 74.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 71.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 69.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 22c | 69.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 22c | 67.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 67.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 24c | 64.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 77c | 62.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 61.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 59.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 21c | 59.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 57.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 26c | 55.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 23c | 50.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 26c | 49.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 49.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 41.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…c8e2backed Yes | 24c | 41.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…2ad7backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 72c | 31.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 78c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 71c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.