Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1ce6c325530e0f2354922e9bae3a029608279eb24858d6f4517bc627d07d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 12c | 525.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 510.38$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 424.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 25c | 400.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 62c | 399.79$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 27c | 348.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 297.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 273.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 58c | 250.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 65c | 238.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 44c | 236.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 67c | 234.91$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 224.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 222.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 220.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 55c | 208.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 53c | 186.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 184.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 43c | 179.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…e99bbacked Yes | 41c | 161$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…a06abacked Yes | 39c | 158.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 33c | 155.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 146.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 80c | 145.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 145.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1175…66abbacked Yes | 41c | 145$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 69c | 144.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…ef78backed Yes | 38c | 142$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 42c | 139.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 126.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 124.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 120.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 42c | 120.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 118.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 50c | 113.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 45c | 112.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 12c | 109.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 103.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 102.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 100.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 43c | 94.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 93.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 59c | 92.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 92.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 33c | 89.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 62c | 87.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 62c | 79.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 65c | 78.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 43c | 73.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 72.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…c612backed No | 59c | 71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 63.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 47c | 63.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…b533backed No | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 45c | 59.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 58c | 59.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 60c | 59.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 51c | 59.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…d3bdbacked No | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 57.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…02ddbacked No | 61c | 57.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 54.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 54c | 51.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 61c | 49.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 65c | 49.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 48.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 37c | 48.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4587backed No | 49c | 45.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…14bebacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed Yes | 65c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…2125backed No | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 42.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 41.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 40.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…859ebacked No | 59c | 38.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 52c | 38.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…0d6cbacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…e1e9backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…aff2backed Yes | 45c | 35.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 46c | 33.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 69c | 33.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…88c4backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.