Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa5781ab2e36beb85c3d1407fbe53d594c2f27fcf7e8cde27403f62d74a1772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,019$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 547.37$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.46 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 69c | 437.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 67c | 372.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 21c | 351.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 338.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 48c | 256.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 18c | 214.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 178.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 176.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 170.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 68c | 166.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 164.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 55c | 154.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 154.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 138$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…6559backed Yes | 67c | 131.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 120.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 41c | 110.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 108.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…58aabacked Yes | 55c | 108.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 107.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed No | 74c | 95.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 86.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 26c | 85.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 60c | 80.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 32c | 77.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 19c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 33c | 67.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7360…1848backed Yes | 32c | 62.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 28c | 61.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 30c | 58.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 58.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 55.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 33c | 54.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 64c | 54.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 66c | 53.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 58c | 50.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 48.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 41c | 45.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 69c | 43.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 40.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 39.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 63c | 37.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 39c | 37.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 37.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 57c | 36.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 44c | 34.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 38c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 37c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 37c | 29.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 25.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 66c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 18.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.