Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f47a1ac0427d6ca60b17aac95847056a999e1fb119fd807eb772cfeeff0c8aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 18c | 900$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 385.11$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 30c | 350$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.5 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 19c | 316.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.14 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 305$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 12c | 271.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 265.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 43c | 233.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 43c | 230.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 175.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 68c | 147.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…58aabacked Yes | 51c | 140.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 133.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 113.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 45c | 101.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…6559backed Yes | 64c | 99.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 90.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 41c | 89.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 87.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 79c | 85.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 84.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 83.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 78.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 77.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 77.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 72.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 64.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 32c | 63.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 62c | 47.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 45.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 62c | 44.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 58c | 42.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…ded2backed Yes | 33c | 40.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 37.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 43c | 36.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 35c | 35.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 35.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 31.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 37c | 28.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0e6ebacked No | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 70c | 25.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…5de5backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 64c | 22.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 48c | 20.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecce…ccbabacked Yes | 63c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 73c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…c405backed Yes | 74c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.