Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94012e365b01e3615ec53203bb3dcadc340a2842a0c6134a65da7e5cc8a65f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b5…4558backed No | 0c | 83,620$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…cc2dbacked No | 0c | 10,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 237.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 62c | 236.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 8c | 182.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 9c | 158.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 69c | 148.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 8c | 136.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 16c | 112.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 64c | 110.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 101.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…dc61backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 37c | 64.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 42c | 62.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 49c | 61.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 80c | 59.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 64c | 59.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 42c | 57.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 58c | 53.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 41c | 42.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 27c | 41.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 79c | 27.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 47c | 27.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…e54fbacked Yes | 71c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…c241backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 58c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 69c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 62c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 72c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 78c | 12.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.