Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1d7ab65e07b0a968cfdd104c7c8a0de64641031a142ec09102a1ce2186d997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 29c | 229$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 39c | 201.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 179.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 16c | 167.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…52eabacked No | 67c | 149.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 35c | 134.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 79c | 133$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 130.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 43c | 101.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 89.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 62c | 88.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 87.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 74.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 28c | 69.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 19c | 66.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 66c | 66.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 60.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 47c | 60.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 56.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…8787backed Yes | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 78c | 48.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 80c | 47.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 45.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 59c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…8e4dbacked Yes | 59c | 30.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 37c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…4014backed Yes | 40c | 25.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 72c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 49c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 46c | 21.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 58c | 19.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 62c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 71c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.