Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a432fcc66c543563b09c73c812a3a29db96c71adb9c7509998adb18996b1e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067d…67f2backed No | 1c | 10,401$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 1c | 9,358$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 79c | 3,311$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.21 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 76c | 2,074$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.52 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 2,058$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 1c | 1,995$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,843$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.42 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 59c | 1,779$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.39 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 1,272$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 74c | 1,261$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 49c | 1,103$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 41c | 747.52$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.14 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…62a0backed Yes | 76c | 638.06$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 59c | 604.42$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 75c | 596.44$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 61c | 516.28$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.12 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f9…dbafbacked Yes | 76c | 507.81$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 501.25$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 21c | 493.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 25c | 457.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 30c | 420.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 79c | 419.36$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 48c | 412.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 386$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 360$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 352.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 79c | 350$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 327.63$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 31c | 320$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 75c | 319.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 63c | 315.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 304.62$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 304.01$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 303$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 274.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 271$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed No | 20c | 270.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 266.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 30c | 264.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 261.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 30c | 259.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 74c | 258.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 53c | 249.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 30c | 247.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 7c | 242.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 28c | 220.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 214.29$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 73c | 205.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 205$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed No | 22c | 202.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 10c | 191.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.94 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 28c | 184.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 178.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 25c | 174.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 38c | 163.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 21c | 158.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b221backed No | 40c | 154.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 70c | 143.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 67c | 141.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 77c | 136.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 22c | 134.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aba…ba26backed Yes | 44c | 134.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 72c | 130.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 18c | 130.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…47fabacked Yes | 70c | 126.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed No | 16c | 123.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 78c | 119.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…3d58backed No | 43c | 118.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 30c | 112.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 71c | 109.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed Yes | 55c | 104.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 66c | 101.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…425ebacked No | 40c | 100.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 34c | 99.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 95.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 24c | 95.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 73c | 89.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 47c | 88.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed Yes | 78c | 88.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 37c | 85.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 78c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 78c | 83.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 70c | 83.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 70c | 83.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 24c | 77.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 77.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 17c | 74.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 64c | 73.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 18c | 70.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0d…387cbacked Yes | 60c | 69.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 71c | 68.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.