Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0237da4a0315f1a540319ab7aaab7d2bfa9e5cfc52c1037a1eabe8b296a2c521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a67…00f2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 15c | 2,443$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.04 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,323$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 2,250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,896$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,539$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…283cbacked Yes | 4c | 717.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 598.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 4c | 525.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 7c | 359.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 70c | 335.85$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 3c | 303.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 302.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 7c | 296.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 284.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 9c | 247.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 6c | 236.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 5c | 235.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…9fccbacked Yes | 7c | 209.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…425ebacked Yes | 10c | 204.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 195.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 26c | 192.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed No | 80c | 182$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…67a0backed Yes | 9c | 180.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 7c | 172$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 31c | 167.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 7c | 151$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 18c | 149.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 11c | 146.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 145.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…74e1backed Yes | 15c | 131.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…9cedbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed Yes | 47c | 107.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 41c | 105.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 44c | 90.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 13c | 89.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 17c | 87.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 14c | 83.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 72.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 66.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 38c | 52.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 29.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 36c | 27.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 24.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.