Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa89bcc367d9286d915e4bfe00b319bf41152643a542e0ef7b64d7836aecf6354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 1c | 8,903$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…f3d5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 0c | 2,644$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 1,793$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 1,313$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.14 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 1,289$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 34c | 1,116$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 24c | 851.05$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 6c | 785.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 769.48$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.32 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 39c | 680.43$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 75c | 661.99$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 23c | 650.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 33c | 568.17$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.01 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 492.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 41c | 486.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 47c | 473.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.47 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 461.85$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 453.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 440.36$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 432.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cf…a2a9backed Yes | 68c | 432.17$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 12c | 417.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 36c | 409.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 75c | 399.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed Yes | 3c | 384.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 371.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 42c | 359.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 349.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 343.41$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 40c | 336.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 325.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 318$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 303.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 6c | 295.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 278.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 15c | 276.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 263.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…08efbacked Yes | 36c | 253.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 43c | 251$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 60c | 248.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 77c | 240.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 233$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 62c | 232.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 20c | 231.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 15c | 211.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…9439backed Yes | 10c | 207.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 35c | 205.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 12c | 200.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 196.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…b094backed Yes | 10c | 196.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 66c | 196.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 64c | 193.94$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…00f0backed Yes | 42c | 179.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 177.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…67a0backed Yes | 23c | 176.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 12c | 171.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…12cbbacked No | 79c | 152.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…9cedbacked Yes | 7c | 151.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…d606backed No | 63c | 151.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed Yes | 24c | 149.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 40c | 142.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 142$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 139.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 53c | 135.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 133.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…21cfbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…0559backed Yes | 11c | 131.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 131.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 31c | 130.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 129.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 29c | 127.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…4d11backed Yes | 13c | 118.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 23c | 109.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 36c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…6843backed Yes | 9c | 105.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 105.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 75c | 100.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…0c3ebacked Yes | 21c | 97.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…4d24backed Yes | 48c | 96.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 96.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 79c | 88.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 39c | 87.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 86.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 64c | 85.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 83.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 18c | 82.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…0014backed Yes | 13c | 82.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 77.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 40c | 75.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.