Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fafbcf269922d95bd7df3905c7024daedccfc33ef0b84c1ca45294bf537a359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 5c | 2,233$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 77c | 784.38$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +422.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 4c | 617.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 27c | 559.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 443.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 75c | 358.29$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 31c | 322.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 293.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 171.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 165.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 13c | 162$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 136$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 126.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 10c | 124.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 18c | 109.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked Yes | 35c | 103.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 93.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 25c | 91.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 87.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 82.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed No | 74c | 82.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…b4e1backed No | 79c | 75.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 56.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…9466backed Yes | 28c | 55.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 27c | 53.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 77c | 51.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d0…003ebacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 30c | 49.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 26c | 45.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 76c | 43.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Yes | 31c | 43.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 71c | 42.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed No | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…72cdbacked No | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.