Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83adf58d46fb03d537dc4f3e2f398ed6e48b47ee7d16e82f729f8b92ab9856ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 2c | 1,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed Yes | 43c | 864.64$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.35 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 79c | 391.31$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +422.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 291.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 77c | 233$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 60c | 230.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 229.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 38c | 194.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 177.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 9c | 148.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 29c | 126.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 26c | 122.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 105.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 99.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 94.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 21c | 93.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 74.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 21c | 71.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 71.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 73c | 68.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 68.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 63.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 55.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 60c | 48.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 33c | 47.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 42.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 26c | 42.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 26c | 41.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 41.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 68c | 39.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 69c | 39.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 70c | 38.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…d285backed Yes | 37c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 39c | 34.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 79c | 33.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 41c | 31.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 47c | 30.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 63c | 29.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…14cdbacked No | 77c | 28.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 28.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Yes | 42c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 48c | 25.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 22.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 21.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 65c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…28c2backed No | 74c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked No | 70c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 16.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 79c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fc…9df5backed No | 74c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 75c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff4…ba52backed No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.