Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb246d18ea6d3ca54a945d9b7269b70adf0b9b9b4a1d9a63cefcfd69e86524a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 21c | 813.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.28 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 43c | 620.51$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 421.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 390.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 54c | 377.86$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.55 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 334.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…31c9backed Yes | 8c | 326.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 292.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90de…5b73backed Yes | 78c | 282.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 280.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 6c | 258.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.77 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 8c | 251.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 64c | 184.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 178.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 67c | 169.55$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 10c | 157$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.3 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 45c | 155.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 148.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 11c | 146.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 143.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 60c | 143.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 130.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 77c | 112.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 41c | 100.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 15c | 96.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 96.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 14c | 89.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 14c | 84.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 78.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 50c | 77.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 63.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 62.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 71c | 57.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 37c | 57.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 45.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 46c | 42.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 77c | 37.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 35.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e4…f498backed No | 78c | 34.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 31.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 30.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 27.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 45c | 25.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 63c | 22.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed No | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…6a1ebacked No | 71c | 18.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 60c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 71c | 17.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.