Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc8eb6448e1ab068de1225be6b41bd2d4d882ce0e259587746da8ded80b39bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 293.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 199.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 30c | 120.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 115.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 109.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 24c | 104.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 92.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 83.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 62c | 80.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 76.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 72.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 67.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…a1c7backed Yes | 32c | 63.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 21c | 60.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 58.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 69c | 57.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 25c | 49.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 49.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 47.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 47.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 70c | 42.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 35c | 35.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 76c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 80c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 79c | 23.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 66c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.