TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dab…e426backed Yes0c45,005$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes3c4,083$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9930919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79dc…9e62backed Yes1c1,213$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6178…a9debacked Yes3c999.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes1c934.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.172634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes23c788.36$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4728718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c773.98$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.645,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c743.74$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No72c739.05$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.131,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes25c701.65$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.141,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c666.53$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes18c517.38$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.151,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No74c481.32$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes33c440.48$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked Yes69c392.25$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.472050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed No61c378.02$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed No57c372.85$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.442157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes23c366.2$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.991,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes22c305.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes23c305.01$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes24c299.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes46c290$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes26c286.56$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No77c284.35$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.684339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes16c283.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8110225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ea…8ed1backed No67c274.05$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.421457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb872…6b4dbacked No76c255.73$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1181…030dbacked No78c230.47$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.891361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c228.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.937,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes20c222.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.953441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes24c220.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.648151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c209.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.721,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes42c202.8$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.369344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes22c199.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed No75c197.16$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.269054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes26c191.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c163.83$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96de…2c06backed Yes67c163.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes30c154.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.621127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked No71c154.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.36747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes44c151.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.114037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes24c151$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes20c150.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No58c149.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.741560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c149.77$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.483,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes65c148.77$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.492259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd2…e163backed No75c137.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No75c135.88$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.484963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes31c131.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes8c130$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No73c129.22$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.551,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes37c127.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.841833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c123.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.611,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c121.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.852,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes25c117.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No57c110.25$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.982846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes16c109.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.665628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ee…5ba7backed Yes30c108.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.22837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+159.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked No60c108.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.661650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c108.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7494919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes13c105.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5826426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes20c104.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7828329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c101.59$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes28c101.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.265119.6%10 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes40c100.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c99.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.093,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ad…22d6backed No71c99.58$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.86144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Yes66c98.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.412864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c98.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.454,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes35c97.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.651,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c97.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes33c97.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3716944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes67c96.69$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes22c92.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.19756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes23c91.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes46c90.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea30…4144backed No53c89.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes19c85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb74…2402backed Yes35c82.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0409backed Yes25c81.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.869943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No66c79.98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.385635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86e4…3afebacked No58c79.69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No61c75.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.161,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes15c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes19c74.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.272133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes41c74.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4139535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c72.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.317,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9729…038abacked No74c71.3$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.89037.8%34 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes68c71.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.48643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No38c70.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…c7dbbacked No71c68.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.19785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick59cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40c9…4a8bbacked No72c68.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes51c65.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No32c64.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.753345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No67c64.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2327167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes27c64.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.