TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes3c1,247$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes3c1,221$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.638016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes2c926.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5414829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c877.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes3c819.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.165111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c501.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c492.62$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.981,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x964c…0a17backed Yes22c446.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.053231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes9c441.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.968,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes18c438.8$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.061,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes25c434.36$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.746747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked No75c399.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes42c384.26$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes19c375.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.242317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c343.88$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.871,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes17c320.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda1b…d455backed Yes5c320.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No64c305.91$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.024339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked Yes35c305.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.082050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes47c305.16$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.987146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed No73c291.86$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.192157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c283.45$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.144,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No70c275.6$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5862555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No76c263.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.152,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes36c262.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.533414.7%5 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes16c238.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes16c230.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8512033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No61c220.39$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c213.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.181,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c205.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.472,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes36c201.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.163441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No74c201.12$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No64c199.97$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No76c193.03$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes28c192.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4265625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Yes50c189.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes38c186.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2210225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c183.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c175.05$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.271,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.38643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes27c168.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.371618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c157.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes31c155.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2111038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c148.35$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes39c146.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.421553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes7c146.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7368…6e6dbacked No68c141.95$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.52330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed Yes22c141.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.085950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c141.66$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.882,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c132.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes36c131.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.781833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c129.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.591,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c128.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.569,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes22c118.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.973333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No19c112$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0926327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes47c111.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.162231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9194…9a04backed Yes34c109.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb44…e0b5backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c99.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed Yes28c97.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3928954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes20c97.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5366944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes29c96.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.881050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes14c96.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No78c92.77$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1818452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc333…543ebacked Yes20c92.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c90.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7318534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes26c83.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6919541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No70c82.45$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.73636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes22c79.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No62c78.83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.159277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes32c77.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7210354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes24c77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4859440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes15c75.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes21c75.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0360%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe668…917ebacked No70c75.17$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes38c73.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.664037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c71.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8827167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes17c68.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8616651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c68.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.982,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes22c61.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.843630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2396…66d7backed Yes23c59.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes35c59.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No79c58.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c56.19$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.882,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes29c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0f…46aabacked Yes25c55.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes34c54.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.685228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No78c54.48$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c53.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6621676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x532a…ea14backed Yes37c51.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes35c50.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.771,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.