Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3dc0a1a9f2e23f0aa0c80478382a5114030bffea5b7a48af267106f7c213bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 10c | 786.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 750.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 694.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 11c | 415.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 13c | 414.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 28c | 392.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 14c | 380$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 340.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 280.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…8418backed No | 13c | 273.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 77c | 240.35$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 43c | 209.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 208.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 206.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 63c | 163.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 147.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 56c | 143.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 10c | 142.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 45c | 135.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 30c | 134$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed No | 43c | 125.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 123.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…6df4backed Yes | 11c | 118.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 115.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 39c | 114.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 9c | 110.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 105.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 103.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 99.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 32c | 93.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 67c | 89.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 38c | 87.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 86.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 34c | 85.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 85.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 77c | 82.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 64c | 77.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 69.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 48c | 54.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 71c | 51.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 35c | 51.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 28c | 48.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 48.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked No | 48c | 48.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 64c | 46.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 22c | 46.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 58c | 46.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 56c | 46.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 45.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 58c | 43.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 37.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 56c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 59c | 33.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 61c | 32.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…1b48backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 61c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce7…c749backed No | 48c | 29.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 28.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 49c | 25.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 40c | 25.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 63c | 24.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 50c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 53c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…a500backed No | 47c | 21.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 21.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…d515backed Yes | 72c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 67c | 16.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…85ccbacked Yes | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.