TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9acf…0cc2backed No10c786.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4322945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes5c750.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c694.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No11c415.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9934624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No13c414.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6962…0629backed Yes28c392.13$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.53438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No14c380$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.971,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No8c340.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No37c280.42$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57f3…8418backed No13c273.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed Yes77c240.35$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.378560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed No43c209.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3312226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c208.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.078,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c206.62$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.973,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d0…1284backed No63c163.65$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.464447.7%21 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No15c147.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.264,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked No56c143.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.49439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes10c142.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3826533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes45c135.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No30c134$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.241,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fa8…39c2backed No43c125.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2910311.7%12 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes55c123.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.81450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5a…6df4backed Yes11c118.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.11010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes15c115.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9965934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No39c114.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4537942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No9c110.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.329520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No26c105.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c103.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes12c101$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.882025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+90%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c99.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No32c93.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed No67c89.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7514638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No38c87.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes35c86.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9566926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No34c85.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.893,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes36c85.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.361,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes77c82.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.143,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes64c77.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8525449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No19c69.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c69.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.83,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.184141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No48c54.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.786053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdee5…67bfbacked No71c51.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.681827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes35c51.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6217025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed No41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes28c48.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1543842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No65c48.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked No48c48.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.58911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…cc98backed No64c46.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.075468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No22c46.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3741258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes58c46.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.621,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes56c46.08$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No51c45.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.542,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.941866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes58c43.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7825946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes74c37.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9922171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Yes32c37.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.669272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No56c36.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4911438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes42c34.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2340739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed No59c33.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.763951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes61c32.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.695648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.625,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb29…1b48backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-74.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ec…0348backed Yes50c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+43.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes61c29.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+181.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ce7…c749backed No48c29.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes57c28.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.341,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No49c25.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6899949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed No40c25.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No63c24.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5517365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes50c24.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2746733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes53c23.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3117237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e3…a500backed No47c21.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No68c21.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4123463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd871…d515backed Yes72c18.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No67c16.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3515749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf35…71e3backed No73c16.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+114.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No68c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76de…85ccbacked Yes76c15.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No75c13.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.