Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde6796d3e1dd93bec4c6fabe0d94e15bc2b17644ef4f0744625929ccdc411dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 6c | 440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 10c | 256.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 7c | 228.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 11c | 225.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 201.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 151.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 135.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 115.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 93.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 26c | 87.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 84.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 70.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 65.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 27c | 62.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 56.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 54.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed Yes | 40c | 51.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 60c | 50.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 25c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 46.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 38.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 79c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 75c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.