Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd06f1edff48b4e74f53cc57d182f848177c6c47f92fa9a02919fcb9ae71e452b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 21c | 2,918$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 79c | 2,108$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.62 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 27c | 972.06$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 80c | 303.03$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 23c | 231.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 229.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 78c | 167.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 74c | 167.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf35…71e3backed No | 23c | 154.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 11c | 130.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 40c | 124.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 68c | 114.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 75c | 106.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 30c | 100.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1c…dc61backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 13c | 80.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 79c | 79.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 72c | 78.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 64c | 77.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 74.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 72c | 69.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 16c | 67.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…a3b6backed No | 17c | 60.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 18c | 57.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 73c | 56.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 25c | 55.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 75c | 55.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…6a96backed Yes | 78c | 55.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…4562backed No | 31c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 43.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 41.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed Yes | 80c | 38.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 69c | 30.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed Yes | 74c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.