TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,443 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes14c2,245$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.623723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c1,289$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.7888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No78c1,209$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.363231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c926.84$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes4c800.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5822111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Yes10c505.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c488.01$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes29c460.22$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No80c392.09$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes7c354.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.288025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes4c335.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7512040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes16c324.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c320.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c293.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes13c264.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes7c263.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.315427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6821…63a4backed Yes8c258$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50f…a14ebacked Yes8c258$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes20c237.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.515030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f8…325fbacked No77c237.16$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c222.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…d8a3backed Yes8c213$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…3e43backed Yes8c213$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ce…9909backed Yes10c204.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes15c203.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+494.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed No63c191.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.238736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No79c179.46$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2217952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes37c176.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.925536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c175$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes7c173.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7115036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes27c169.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes36c163.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797c…1f74backed Yes8c156$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…964abacked Yes8c155$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b4…c0cdbacked Yes8c155$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f19…27adbacked Yes8c152$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1fb…78d1backed No67c149.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No79c148.76$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.252751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…e6bcbacked Yes10c147.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes12c139.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes11c137.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes32c133.68$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.831315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes17c130.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.655837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes16c124.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…dcdebacked Yes14c119.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes39c117.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3732354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes11c117.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.219160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes17c116.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes9c114.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c102.4$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.381,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.492030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c98.91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes41c96.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.876448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No67c82.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.294759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes14c77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.745843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No65c76.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.722544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes14c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.558856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes41c72.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes24c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes41c64.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.295957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c60.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No71c58.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.955044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes38c50.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.552969%20 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8314467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes25c47.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.763828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No63c46.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.014753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No60c45.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf3…ca4abacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c37.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0227438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7544138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.225131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes46c32.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.031650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8782…0968backed Yes43c29.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes35c28.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No64c20.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.166346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee49…155ebacked No61c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.782842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3773…f0ddbacked No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+57.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.298775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.