World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96a44d9c77d5118983d22ab471937023e25fc8e618eec5f427b1ff0c475851d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 1,968$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 813.31$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.45 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 730.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 676.12$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.7 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 562.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 8c | 506.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 461.27$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 382.48$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.13 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 348.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 314.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 288.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 274.38$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 80c | 262.07$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 260.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 260.37$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 10c | 226.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 214.44$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 27c | 213.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 26c | 213.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 206.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +285.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 193.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 182.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 11c | 170.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed No | 67c | 165.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 39c | 164.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 153.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 8c | 148.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 143.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 15c | 138.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 21c | 137.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 124.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 122.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 121.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 113.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 61c | 110.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 107.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 106.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 72c | 103.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 98.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 97.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 91.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 89.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 14c | 78.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 79c | 76.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 74.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 35c | 72.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…86c0backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 35c | 59.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 42c | 58.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 58.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 76c | 56.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 24c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 26c | 49.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…efd8backed No | 77c | 40.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 32.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 54c | 30.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 42c | 27.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…4d92backed No | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…74a6backed No | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked Yes | 59c | 22.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 65c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6420…8741backed No | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 80c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.