World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dad26a27114c62b7dfe20fd648ca39fe0f30bedd1edeccf50b0d05e8757d721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 4,175$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,862.84 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 4,062$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,985.1 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 2c | 3,742$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 71c | 2,701$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,295$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.14 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,188$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.71 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed No | 73c | 1,092$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.71 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 951.48$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.43 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…8871backed No | 39c | 872.92$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 849.41$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.65 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 813.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 60c | 741.38$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.92 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 705.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.96 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 699.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 546.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.78 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 38c | 536.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.51 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 47c | 532.3$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 3c | 521.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 17c | 493.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.03 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 58c | 460.24$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 419.86$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.46 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 35c | 418.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 343.22$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 334.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 6c | 331.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 289.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.77 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 260.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 70c | 229.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 31c | 228.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 227.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 13c | 218.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 214.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 213.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 15c | 212.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 25c | 201.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +285.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 6c | 190.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.53 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 65c | 183.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 181.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 60c | 181.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 170.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 168$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 164.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 72c | 152.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 148.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 148.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 146.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…eb50backed Yes | 49c | 133.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 131.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e55dbacked No | 72c | 115.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 55c | 114.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…474fbacked Yes | 46c | 105.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 69c | 103.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 101.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 76c | 97.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 94.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…e0f6backed Yes | 25c | 80.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 71.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…0968backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…22e9backed Yes | 15c | 67.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 60.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 53c | 60.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 59c | 59.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 55.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 44c | 49.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 47.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed Yes | 38c | 43.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 29c | 36.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 51c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 31.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 29.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 34c | 29.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 63c | 28.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 54c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9d…f1b5backed Yes | 45c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…d22ebacked Yes | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 18.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.