World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0003ea1b2847635b8cc4c27819085c78b312df880b24411d2053c4e6634a0202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 2c | 2,455$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,053$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 1c | 801$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 436.78$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 23c | 326.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 264.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 242.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 25c | 219.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 13c | 189.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…fb64backed Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 125.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 117.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 109.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 95.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d1ccbacked No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 55.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 50.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 47.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 44.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.