World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4928ec998fbe554102a997d7507c517658103533c0c60796dd745eea3561418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 18c | 942.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 899.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 836.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 35c | 419.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 304.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 73c | 232.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 202.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 39c | 170.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 25c | 166.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 145.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 12c | 144$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…dcdebacked Yes | 35c | 138.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…dc70backed Yes | 39c | 131.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 122.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…1f26backed Yes | 35c | 118.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 115.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dc…1e1abacked Yes | 35c | 114.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 101.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 66c | 96.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 90.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 13c | 80.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 31c | 77.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…0f06backed Yes | 35c | 61.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 34c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 57.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 55.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 22c | 55.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 55.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 55.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 52.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…791ebacked No | 67c | 44.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 66c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 34c | 43.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 63c | 42.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 42.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 42.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 41.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…ab03backed Yes | 36c | 37.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 36.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 36.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked Yes | 32c | 35.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 57c | 31.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 30.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…c0e1backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed No | 64c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked No | 67c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 66c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.