TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,034
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,034 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c2,014$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.712816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a9…da0abacked No67c1,485$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes18c1,418$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes27c822.04$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2213026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes29c814.38$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.29020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes8c580.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c425$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c405.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.938025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes12c393.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3714521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No73c353.13$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes34c335.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.68736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c282.48$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes23c197.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4815036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No75c187$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.953351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes32c170$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.15536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes32c166.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c162.35$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.613268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No75c150.28$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.574052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c142.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c139.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2322111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cf…dc70backed Yes34c129.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c125.46$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.961,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c122.17$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes30c118.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c117.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes12c113.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.994341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c112.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes26c110.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2110039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No77c110.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.145072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed No79c108.97$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes21c108$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.566126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c106$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351010%1 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick46cpaid-83.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c98.91$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5315766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes26c94.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.294831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No70c89.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes27c89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.597842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes27c85.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No77c77.06$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.833666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…712bbacked No69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec11…953fbacked No80c72.11$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…dcdebacked Yes32c71.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes25c69.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7816934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed Yes35c66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes38c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.74146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c60.89$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.932639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No74c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.66437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No80c59.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.89160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No70c52.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.681250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No68c51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No80c50.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4114467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes31c50.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No78c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.565881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb7…e0cfbacked Yes33c42.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes32c42.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes28c41.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6612055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes35c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c38.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed No67c37.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No70c30.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.121450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c30.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.617582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8782…0968backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.331152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x84ec…42f8backed No69c29.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c27.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9727438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No69c24.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No65c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No70c21.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5714351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf28…65cfbacked No68c20.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.78775.9%66 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c6…d465backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.46960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c19.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No67c18.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.983562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+126.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.448672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No71c16.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.183053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd113…6c00backed No69c15.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4515355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.