Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ba207b47c1215f86aa1c3226fcfc3134610a35c2597f472b44ba043cf214f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 3c | 679.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 43c | 361.7$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 60c | 357.42$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 48c | 352.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 263.13$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 48c | 196.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 148.77$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 34c | 140.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 132.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 127.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 117.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed No | 54c | 112.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 109.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 106.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 99.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 41c | 86.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 23c | 79.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 78.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 69c | 77.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 77.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 76.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 67.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed No | 74c | 65.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 65.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 66c | 60.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 55c | 60.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 56.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…22a6backed Yes | 37c | 55.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 39c | 53.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 36c | 51.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed No | 53c | 47.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 41c | 46.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 43.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 45c | 42.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 26c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 41c | 41.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 36c | 41.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 28c | 39.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 45c | 38.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 78c | 38.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 51c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 36.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 48c | 33.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 42c | 33.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked No | 64c | 32.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 42c | 32.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 32.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 41c | 30.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…9d70backed Yes | 48c | 29.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 41c | 29.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 77c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…5995backed No | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 52c | 28.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 40c | 28.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 56c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 64c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.