Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5299b475be65d89a1fb705f96260539907d94df76017b6ddaef65624aa116e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed No | 5c | 801.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 21c | 388.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.95$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 51c | 329.73$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 287.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 53c | 281.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 200.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 38c | 159.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 149$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 79c | 145.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 137.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 119.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 118.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 11c | 114.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 38c | 109.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 106.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 42c | 101.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1c…e255backed No | 49c | 101.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…22a6backed Yes | 58c | 100.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 49c | 96.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 37c | 79.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 49c | 77.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 36c | 75.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…7b2fbacked No | 56c | 71.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 68.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 67.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 53c | 62.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 62c | 60.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 53c | 58.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 63c | 57.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 56.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 56.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 55.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…6c2abacked Yes | 45c | 49.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 48.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 40c | 47.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 41c | 43.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 40c | 37.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 36.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 59c | 35.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 52c | 34.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 34.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 38c | 33.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 38c | 33.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 37c | 31.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 36c | 31.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 40c | 28.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 54c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 27.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…bc32backed Yes | 51c | 20.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 58c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 62c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.