Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fda47f70a163191a09fad7a613a78a291eba881e1951b7482eb4543302c6854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,919$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 26c | 1,315$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.45 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 73c | 830.58$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.09 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 818.05$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 673.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 516.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.14 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 31c | 476.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 464.35$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 20c | 427.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 60c | 412.77$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 369$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 335.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 284.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 238.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 20c | 224.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 45c | 220.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 47c | 199.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 7c | 173.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 20c | 169.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 167.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 167.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 157.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…eed1backed Yes | 54c | 153.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 30c | 151.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…1721backed No | 68c | 146.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 79c | 145.32$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 143.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 142.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 26c | 134.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 24c | 133.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 47c | 129.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 37c | 117.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 32c | 111.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 106.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 31c | 105.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 48c | 102.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 38c | 95.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 56c | 90.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 87.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 28c | 82.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…6a1abacked No | 27c | 80.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 74.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 39c | 73.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 27c | 68.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 64.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 59.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…8dddbacked No | 45c | 45.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 56c | 44.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 49c | 43.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 42.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 50c | 38.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 45c | 38.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 37.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 30c | 33.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 32.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 63c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 31.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 74c | 25.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 41c | 24.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 64c | 21.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…643ebacked Yes | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…d5e4backed No | 60c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked No | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 73c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 64c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.