Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78049781b8c68cf022b25665761ea32b30911251efdef42d0f321888cd61c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lorenzo Musettiof Daniel Altmaier, Lorenzo Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniel Altmaier | 0c | 45,241$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 9,161 | 36.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L | -202.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 7,764$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.13 | 636 | 51.7%329 W · 307 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…cea7backed Daniel Altmaier | 10c | 5,200$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 329 | 35.6%117 W · 212 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 4,480$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.51 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Daniel Altmaier | 16c | 3,960$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.02 | 4,277 | 45%1,925 W · 2,352 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 2,831$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.89 | 2,492 | 51.3%1,279 W · 1,213 L | +15.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Daniel Altmaier | 7c | 2,200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 370 | 38.4%142 W · 228 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 1,599$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.74 | 3,359 | 48.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L | -49.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 1,549$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.32 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 1,250$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,711 | 48.5%829 W · 882 L | +41.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 1,244$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.59 | 1,771 | 49.2%872 W · 899 L | +58.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Daniel Altmaier | 21c | 800.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 4,376 | 52.3%2,290 W · 2,086 L | +67.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 788$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 440 | 49.1%216 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…fe54backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 777.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3cabbacked Daniel Altmaier | 9c | 667$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 269 | 31.2%84 W · 185 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Daniel Altmaier | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Daniel Altmaier | 2c | 635.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…fe98backed Daniel Altmaier | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Daniel Altmaier | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8101…663ebacked Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…9050backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Daniel Altmaier | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 415.01$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 373.8$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 1,800 | 47.2%849 W · 951 L | -45.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 320.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 254 | 37%94 W · 160 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 540 | 47%254 W · 286 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 254.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 5,041 | 41.4%2,087 W · 2,954 L | -83.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…0913backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 253.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c81…98b7backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 244.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,922 | 44%846 W · 1,076 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…5fb9backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 33.8%45 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…9b77backed Daniel Altmaier | 23c | 208.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Daniel Altmaier | 20c | 195.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,352 | 28.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…c45cbacked Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 165.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 325 | 49.5%161 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Daniel Altmaier | 8c | 162.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 644 | 26.2%169 W · 475 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…83c2backed Daniel Altmaier | 7c | 158.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 204 | 27.9%57 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 155.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 35%56 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…96f4backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 31.5%40 W · 87 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 129$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 732 | 57.4%420 W · 312 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 125.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 490 | 58%284 W · 206 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…3c05backed Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 125.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…0870backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…5850backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 110.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 957 | 45.6%436 W · 521 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 250 | 51.6%129 W · 121 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 858 | 68.4%587 W · 271 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…4f00backed Daniel Altmaier | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe780…055bbacked Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…9ff0backed Daniel Altmaier | 12c | 87.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…0c31backed Daniel Altmaier | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 76.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 338 | 51.2%173 W · 165 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…b0fdbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 63.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…66cdbacked Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Daniel Altmaier | 21c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 284 | 42.3%120 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Daniel Altmaier | 23c | 49.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 48.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Daniel Altmaier | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,554 | 36.3%928 W · 1,626 L | -23.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Lorenzo Musetti | 77c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Lorenzo Musetti | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 379 | 59.9%227 W · 152 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Lorenzo Musetti | 74c | 34.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,960 | 43.8%858 W · 1,102 L | -20.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 33.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Lorenzo Musetti | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 393 | 65.9%259 W · 134 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 77c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…ed7bbacked Lorenzo Musetti | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.